Introduction
First, Dr. Clay Zimmerman from Balchem opens the webinar and introduces Dr. Andrea Lindevig, Head of Research and Development at IFCN. Next, Dr. Lindevig explains IFCN’s role as a global dairy data and consultancy network.
Then, she outlines the core analytical framework for her talk. Specifically, she stresses the need to separate short-term market “shocks” from long-term “trends.” This distinction helps leaders make smarter strategic decisions in the dairy industry.
Main Topics
1. Current Global Dairy Market Status (2024)
To begin, Dr. Lindevig reports that global milk production (standardized to 4% fat, 3.3% protein) has passed the 1-billion-ton mark. However, growth has slowed. Production rose 2.7% annually from 2010 to 2020, but only 2% in the last five years.
Moreover, “delivered milk” (milk entering formal markets) grew just 0.8% per year. On the demand side, growth continues, fueled by a steady 1% population increase and fluctuating per capita consumption. Importantly, rising butter prices have driven world milk prices. This reflects a long-term shift toward higher-fat products. Consequently, the U.S. boosted milk solids production and moved from a net importer to a net exporter of butter.
2. Farm-Level Analysis and Economics
Next, the presentation examines farm economics. Costs have climbed about 20% over five years. Feed remains the largest expense, while labor and machinery costs also rise. These pressures accelerate farm consolidation.
Dr. Lindevig shares striking data: small household farms dominate in number, yet only 3% of farms (those with over 10 cows) produce nearly 60% of global milk. Larger, more efficient “business farms,” mainly in the U.S. and Europe, will remain the backbone of future supply.
3. Future Outlook and Perspectives to 2035
Looking ahead, IFCN forecasts global milk production will grow 15% by 2035. This increase will come from a 0.6-ton annual rise in milk yield per cow. However, herd sizes in developed regions will shrink.
Despite growth, the world could face a 20-million-ton “unsatisfied demand” gap if trends persist. Europe and Oceania will likely cut production due to environmental rules and other limits. In contrast, the U.S. is poised to lead export growth. Africa and Asia will need imports—basic milk powders in Africa and premium products like cheese in parts of Asia.
Q&A Session
During Q&A, Dr. Lindevig explains that feed costs stem from multiple factors, including fertilizers and key commodities like corn and soybean. She urges European policymakers to consider global consequences when drafting regulations. Restricting efficient European production could shift output to less efficient regions, raising emissions.
She adds that milk alternatives like oat and almond milk have not dented overall dairy consumption, which continues to rise. Finally, she notes that GLP-1 weight-loss drugs represent a new “shock,” already pushing demand toward higher-protein dairy products.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the global dairy market stands at a turning point. Demand will grow, but supply remains tight in traditional exporting regions. This creates both challenges and opportunities. To succeed, the industry must boost efficiency, adopt technology, and plan strategically. The U.S. dairy sector, in particular, holds a major chance to expand its global role.
