Building on her December 2, 2025, Real Science Lecture Series webinar, Andrea Lendewig and guest join this podcast to dive deeper into the data behind global dairy trends and market shifts. You can find the original webinar here. The perspectives for 2035 and the global dairy market are essential topics throughout this episode.
Episode 196: Global Dairy Market Status and 2035 Perspectives
Andrea opens by outlining IFCN’s global dairy data network and explains how annual farm‑level data collection and monthly updates allow IFCN to monitor milk production, prices, and costs across major dairy regions. She highlights a major industry milestone: global milk production surpassing 1 billion tons, driven by growth across multiple regions. (04:40)
The discussion then turns to recent production trends. The panel explains how the U.S. has shown consistent strength, while the EU experienced slower growth early before unexpected late‑season increases. China and parts of Latin America continue to grow production but remain dependent on international markets. Weather, animal health, and strong milk prices aligned to create production surprises in several regions. These production shifts are closely tied to changes within the Global Dairy Market, and 2035 perspectives highlight the importance of international influences. (17:30)
Andrea and Lucas examine global milk price dynamics, focusing on the growing divergence between butter and cheese prices over the last decade. Butter prices have increasingly driven global milk price signals, influencing producer behavior and trade flows. One notable shift discussed is the U.S. becoming a net exporter of butter in 2025 after more than a decade as a net importer. Looking at the Global Dairy Market, the implications for 2035 show rapidly evolving patterns in dairy exports and pricing.
The panel also explores rising costs of milk production. IFCN data show that milk production costs have increased sharply over the last five years, with roughly 75% of countries now facing costs above $40 per hundredweight. These pressures are influencing farm investment decisions, particularly in regions with stricter environmental regulations. When considering the Global Dairy Market and 2035 perspectives, cost increases may significantly impact future industry trends. (28:30)
Herd dynamics and beef‑on‑dairy economics are another key theme. Lucas and Jeremy describe how record beef prices have reshaped breeding decisions in the U.S., increased calf values, and encouraged producers to keep cows longer. This dynamic has contributed to U.S. herd growth and stronger-than-expected milk supply, raising the question of whether current production trends represent a new normal. As we analyze these changes, the Global Dairy Market and perspectives for 2035 play a role in forecasting future shifts.
The conversation contrasts structural differences between Europe, and the U.S. European producers face tighter environmental regulations, land constraints, and aging farmer demographics, limiting expansion. In response, many EU farmers are diversifying income through solar energy, agri‑tourism, and land leasing rather than increasing milk output. Both IFCN and Rabobank suggest 2025 may represent peak milk production for the EU under current conditions. Structural differences are important when considering the Global Dairy Market outlook and 2035 perspectives. (45:00)
Attention then shifts to exports and demand. Lucas outlines where U.S. dairy exports are growing—especially in Mexico, Asia, and emerging markets—and explains why exports will be critical as domestic consumption grows more slowly than production. The panel also discusses rising consumer interest in protein, from high‑protein milk and beverages to whey ingredients, and how this trend supports long‑term dairy demand. The global dairy market’s expanding exports and the perspectives for 2035 are crucial to understanding evolving consumer trends. (51:00)
Looking ahead to 2035, Andrea and Philip share IFCN’s long‑term outlook. The U.S. is expected to drive most global production growth, while Europe trends closer to self‑sufficiency and Oceania remains export‑focused. Demand growth—driven by population increases and more westernized diets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East—is expected to outpace supply growth, supporting higher dairy prices over time. In short, the Global Dairy Market and 2035 perspectives suggest rapid expansion and evolving challenges for producers and exporters. (57:30)
In closing, the panel reflects on key takeaways: the importance of data‑driven decisions, diversification of farm income, continued productivity gains through genetics and technology, and strong long‑term fundamentals for dairy. While risks remain, the group agrees the global dairy sector is well positioned for the next decade. Considering both 2035 perspectives and global dairy market status helps frame these key takeaways for industry leaders. (01:02:00)
Conclusion
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